The story goes that last October, on the day after the Breeders' Cup, Bob Baffert predicted that "a son of Silver Charm is going to win the [2004 Kentucky] Derby; I just don't know who he is." Over four months later, Baffert ran Odds On and Preachinatthebar--two of his four Triple Crown entries by his former star--in Sunday's San Felipe S., with the latter keeping his handler's hopes alive with a game win over the rather unlucky St Averil.

Silver Charm, of course, failed by only three-parts of a length to complete the Triple Crown in 1997 and eventually retired with earnings amounting to the staggering sum of nearly $7 million. In the process, he had shown himself to be a model of class and consistency, finishing either first or second in 18 of his 19 starts at the ages of two, three and four (before losing a bit of his zest at five).

Notwithstanding his outstanding record on the track, it was impossible to overlook the fact that Silver Charm had changed hands for only $16,500 as a yearling.

Consequently, his fee on his retirement to Three Chimneys Farm was set no higher than $25,000--only half the amount asked for the services of Forestry, that year's highest-priced freshman sire. Whereas the Grade I-winning Forestry is by Storm Cat out of a Grade I winner from the family of Mr. Prospector, Silver Charm is one of only three Grade I winners among the sizeable number of foals sired by the Florida-based Silver Buck. What's more, none of the sires of his first three dams--Poker, Wise Margin and Faultless--had excelled as stallions (although Poker will always be remembered as the broodmare sire of Seattle Slew).

I have commented before that stallions with this type of background--where the horse's performance outshines his pedigree--tend to be less prolific sources of top performers than their blue-blooded rivals. Fortunately, there are occasional exceptions to this rule, which prompts the question of whether Silver Charm will prove to be one of them.

I think it's fair to say that buyers didn't give him the benefit of the doubt when his first yearlings came on the market in 2002. With a median no higher than $48,500, Silver Charm had only one youngster sold for $300,000 or more. Forestry, on the other hand, achieved a median of $160,000, with 10 individuals selling for prices between $300,000 and $800,000.

The total of winners is continuing to rise this year, as has his number of stakes performers, most notably thanks to Consecrate and Preachinatthebar. Consecrate has twice finished a creditable third behind Imperialism in graded company, running like a horse with a future over longer distances in the GII San Rafael S. Preachin-atthebar then showed the benefit of his recent third in the Sham S. by becoming his sire's first stakes winner in the San Felipe.

The chances are that there will be plenty more to come. Buyers showed Silver Charm more respect at last year's yearling sales, paying a median price of $68,500, with four colts selling for sums between $300,000 and $675,000. No wonder his 2004 book filled quickly.

Sixteen juvenile winners was an impressive total for a horse like Silver Charm. Admittedly, he matured quickly enough to race three times during August and September of his juvenile season, notably landing a head win in the GII Del Mar Futurity over seven furlongs, but he was rated eight pounds inferior to Boston Harbor. He clearly improved between the ages of two and three, as might be expected of a horse of his imposing physique. He stands 16.2 hands, as did his sire Silver Buck, and his grandsire Buckpasser was taller still, at 16.3.

Silver Charm, while possessing the speed to run very well over seven furlongs as a three-year-old, was ideally suited by a mile and a quarter, as he showed with his victories in the Kentucky Derby and Dubai World Cup and his close second in the Breeders' Cup Classic. It's going to be interesting to see whether Preachinatthebar can follow suit, especially as he is out of a mare by Silver Deputy. Even though Silver Deputy enjoyed mile-and-a-quarter success with Silverbulletday and Archers Bay, I tend to associate his name more with speed than stamina.

Preachinatthebar's dam, Holy Nola, inherited Silver Deputy's speed and precocity, but her tough sister Bare Necessities has done very well at around a mile and an eighth, scoring twice at the Grade III level. It is also encouraging that, as a daughter of Spectacular Bid and Theia, his second dam Shrewd Vixen was bred to stay at least a mile and a quarter. Theia was France's champion juvenile filly of 1975, when she won the G1 Criterium des Pouliches, and she was also very effective at three, when she scored at group level at up to 1 5/16 miles and ran creditably in Group 1 company over a mile and a half.